The New Democrat Online

Monday, November 28, 2011

Presidential Approval Ratings. How they Affected Presidential Elections Historically: Who beats the President in 2012



Historically if you look how President Obama's Approval Rating and compared it with previous Presidents. At this point in their Presidency, President Obama doesn't look very good as far as Presidents that have been reelected. But you gotta remember a few things, President Obama despite all the problems that the country faces, is still the most popular National Politician in the country. Going up against a party that doesn't know who'll they nominate in 2012. Chances are still that it will be Mitt Romney but there's a movement in that party, thats working against to see Romney get nominated. The Anybody but Romney Movement, the Republican Party is still debating whether they want to win the 2012 Presidential Election. By electing a Mainstream Candidate that can win and by appealing to Independent Voters. Or do they want to go farther right and nominate someone with Neoconservative leanings. Or nominate someone who's the closest thing they have to Ronald Reagan right now in Newt Gingrich. But someone who may offend the Religious Right and has a tendency to say what he believes even if it offends the Republican Base or not. Newt Gingrich is not someone who can be controlled and won't do whatever it takes to get elected. But someone who speaks his mind and says what he believes and knows, which I believe will cost him the Republican Nomination. For President Obama to lose reelection even if he's at 43% in the polls, you still need someone who can beat him. Who can get at least 43% themselves, and the GOP is not going to accomplish that by nominating a Far Right candidate.

Is President Obama in an ideal position to get reelected, of course not with a 9% Unemployment Rate, 20% Poverty Rate and climbing. The economy starting to do better but slowly. A Republican House not interested in working with the President to pass anything, a Senate Republican Minority not interested in passing anything. That the House doesn't send over, they believe Gridlock works better for them, even though they have 62 Freshmen up for reelection. Thats the Political Calculation they are making but despite all of this, President Obama is still the most popular National Politician. He has a 74% Approval Rating in the Democratic Party, there's not a Republican Presidential Candidate that comes close to that. In the Republican Party so who beats the President right now, you may say Mitt Romney but if half of the Republican Party is against him. Or lets just say 40%, thats not going to happen, Herman Cain of course not, the country is not looking for another Neoconservative. Michelle Bachmann, next her 15 minutes were up in August, Rick Perry's time was up in September. Even though John Huntsman's numbers haven't moved much in the polls, I still see him as one of their three contenders. Because he has a Track Record that would make him a good matchup against the President. But he has to win the nomination first.

This is not 1979-80 where you basically had a very weak President in Jimmy Carter politically and I don't say that to put President Carter down. Because I respect him but you had a weak Democratic President going up against a strong Republican Party. With two strong Presidential Candidates that could both beat President Carter. In Ron Reagan and George Bush and the GOP just had to decide who to choose from, which they did fairly quickly. Plus President Carter was facing a fairly strong Primary Challenge from Sen. Ted Kennedy. This is not 1979-80, considering the circumstances of the country and with Lack of Opposition that President Obama faces. The President is still the best bet to win the Presidential Election in 2012 and get reelected.